Economic Forecasting for Management

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Economic Forecasting for Management Possibilities and Limitations

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Hans Georg Graf

ISBN: 1-56720-601-8

ISBN-13: 978-1-56720-601-2

DOI:

264 pages

Praeger Publishers

Publication: 8/30/2002

List Price: $103.95 (UK Sterling Price: £71.95)

Availability: In Stock

Media Type: Hardcover

Trim Size: 6 1/8 x 9 1/4

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Description: Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose.

This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.

Table of Contents:

Preface
Forecasting and Futures Research--an Unequal Pair
Fundamentals of Human Behavior
Dimensions of Forecasting
Evaluation Criteria
The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast
A Common Language
Long-Term Economic Forecasting
Topic under Investigation and Information Sought
The Evolution of Economies
Impossibility of (Long-term) Forecasting
Macro-Economic Perspectives
Methods for Long-Term Forecasting
Working with Global Models--Learning and Forecasts
Delphi Technique
Cross Impact Analysis
Environmental Scenarios for Strategy Development
Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management
Scenarios as an Instrument of Forecasting
Working with Scenarios at the Company Level
Introduction of the Scenario Method in Company Policy
Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting
Topic under Investigation and Information Sought
Economic Forecasting
Market Forecasting
Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses
Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves
Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect
Transformation of Market Forecasts into Company Decisions
In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for in Economic Forecasting?
Bibliography
Index

About the Author: HANS GEORG GRAF is President and CEO of the Center for Futures Research in St. Gallen, Switzerland, and Professor of Economics at the University of St. Gallen.

LCC Class: 330


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