Advanced Search
Print - Close Window
www.greenwood.com/catalog/Q601.aspx
All Greenwood Products
Economic Forecasting for Management Possibilities and Limitations
(Click to Enlarge)
Hans Georg Graf
ISBN: 1-56720-601-8
ISBN-13: 978-1-56720-601-2
264 pages
Praeger Publishers
Publication: 8/30/2002
List Price: $103.95 (UK Sterling Price: £71.95)
Availability: In Stock
Media Type: Hardcover
Trim Size: 6 1/8 x 9 1/4
Subjects:
Description: Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose.

This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Table of Contents:
  • Preface
    Forecasting and Futures Research--an Unequal Pair
    Fundamentals of Human Behavior
    Dimensions of Forecasting
    Evaluation Criteria
    The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast
    A Common Language
    Long-Term Economic Forecasting
    Topic under Investigation and Information Sought
    The Evolution of Economies
    Impossibility of (Long-term) Forecasting
    Macro-Economic Perspectives
    Methods for Long-Term Forecasting
    Working with Global Models--Learning and Forecasts
    Delphi Technique
    Cross Impact Analysis
    Environmental Scenarios for Strategy Development
    Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management
    Scenarios as an Instrument of Forecasting
    Working with Scenarios at the Company Level
    Introduction of the Scenario Method in Company Policy
    Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting
    Topic under Investigation and Information Sought
    Economic Forecasting
    Market Forecasting
    Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses
    Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves
    Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect
    Transformation of Market Forecasts into Company Decisions
    In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for in Economic Forecasting?
    Bibliography
    Index
About the Author: HANS GEORG GRAF is President and CEO of the Center for Futures Research in St. Gallen, Switzerland, and Professor of Economics at the University of St. Gallen.
LCC Class: 330
All rights reserved. Copyright © 1999-2009 ABC-CLIO
130 Cremona Dr., Santa Barbara, CA 93117 805-968-1911